Not particularly great for Romney on the evidence thus far. The major polls aren’t really showing any bump for Romney. Here’s the FiveThirtyEight forecast for the election on the numbers today:
However, Nate Silver warns that given the margin of error on the major polls (Ipsos, Gallup and Rasmussen), it’s really too difficult to make a judgement one way or the other:
The polling evidence we have so far, however, is just not rich enough to adjudicate between these different outcomes. And it may take the forecast model a few days to catch up to Mr. Romney’s gains, if he’s made them. Plus, there are other important events in the news cycle, like the release of Friday morning’s jobs report, that could further complicate the analysis.
So have some patience, poll-watchers. There are some points in each election cycle where the amount of news exceeds the amount of polling evidence that we have to analyze it. Because a number of major economic reports are accounted for directly by the model, we can sometimes get a head start on those — but that isn’t true for noneconomic events like the debates.
While hordes of liberal have been ready to jump of the cliff after Obama’s bad performance on Wednesday night, they might want to hold on and assess the wider picture. There are too many elements that go into a Presidential election to get excited by one performance on one particular night. General elections are wars of attrition and are not won by individual battles – a fact that Hillary Clinton and John McCain struggled to come to terms with when facing off against Obama. One good night means just that – one good night.
Ben Cohen is the editor and founder of The Daily Banter. He lives in Washington DC where he does podcasts, teaches Martial Arts, and tries to be a good father. He would be extremely disturbed if you took him too seriously.