From the Guardian:
Florida senator Marco Rubio is the clear favourite to become Mitt Romney‘s vice-presidential running-mate, according to associate professor Jody Baumgartner who runs a model to help predict vice-presidential picks.
Baumgartner’s forecast comes as ABC reported that Rubio is not yet on the list of candidates being vetted by the Romney campaign team.
More than 20 names have been mentioned so far as possible running-mates for Romney. But Baumgartner noted that Romney in July mentioned three names for this shortlist: Rubio, New Jersey governor Chris Christie and Virginia governor Bob McDonnell.
Based on that, he ran their details through his model, which crunched statistical data on 20 previous vice-presidential picks dating back to 1960. On that basis, he predicted “Rubio would get the nod”.
According to Baumgartner, associate professor of politics at East Carolina University and author of books that include The American Vice-Presidency Reconsidered, his model would have correctly picked 13 of the 20 nominees dating back to 1960 and five of the seven since 1992: Al Gore, Jack Kemp, Dick Cheney, John Edwards and Joe Biden. The model would not have predicted Joe Lieberman and Sarah Palin.
Baumgartner fed into his model details of Rubio, Christie and McDonnell, including the size of the candidate’s home state, regional and ideological balance, years in public office, military experience and age.
Baumgartner said the results of his analysis “suggest that the probabilities of each of the individuals being selected are: Chris Christie 14%; Bob McDonnell 9% and Marco Rubio 76%.