British Election Projection

Nate Silver looks at the British election and projects a Conservative minority government. He writes:

If seats in the House of Commons are distributed

exactly as our model suggests, it would create an unusual situation in

which Conservatives alone could not form a majority, but Labour and

Liberal Democrats could also not combine to form a majority. My

personal view is that the most likely outcome of such a scenario would

be a Conservative minority government, possibly followed by new

elections in relatively short order as Conservatives sought to win an

outright majority.

Here’s the chart:

Andrew Sullivan believes if this happens, the Tories will face a nightmare scenario:

The Tory nightmare scenario – foretold to me last autumn by a senior

Tory – is that they have to govern as a minority government, enact

stringent spending cuts and then face an angry electorate after a few

months, because their minority government is brought down in the

Commons. In other words: the Tories would be used to do the dirty work

of actually cutting spending and then pilloried and replaced.

In other words, this might be the best scenario possible (sorry Andrew, your Tory sympathies are not shared on this blog) – Labour gets rid of Brown, reinvents itself or more closely allies itself with the Lib Dems and get themselves into power. The truth is, Britain is clearly heading in a more progressive direction given the Lib Dems and Labour still outnumber the Tories. A Conservative government will enact the exact same policies that got the country into the mess in in the first place and will only make matters worse. I don’t think Labour deserves to win, but I don’t think Britain deserves the Tories either.

Ben Cohen is the editor and founder of The Daily Banter. He lives in Washington DC where he does podcasts, teaches Martial Arts, and tries to be a good father. He would be extremely disturbed if you took him too seriously.