In all this hubub about polling recently, I am reminded of this story from October of 2004
President Bush and Sen. John Kerry are deadlocked among likely voters in Hawai’i, a surprising boost for the Republican president in a state that many Democrats had considered safe for Kerry.
The findings of the Honolulu Advertiser Hawai’i Poll suggest that Hawai’i’s four electoral votes are in play with just over a week to go before the election. Nationally, other opinion polls have found that Bush and Kerry are essentially tied for the popular vote.
The Hawai’i Poll, taken among 600 likely voters statewide between Oct. 13 and Monday, had Bush at 43.3 percent and Kerry at 42.6 percent. The margin of error was 4 percentage points.
You should also remember that in response to this poll, the Kerry campaign sent Al Gore to Hawaii to campaign while Bush sent Cheney there.
John Kerry won Hawaii by 9%. So remember, whether your guy is in the lead or not, they could all be wrong. In other words: President Bob Barr. Yeah, I said it.