New Data Reveals Republicans Should Be Very, Very Worried About Midterms

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Image via KYLE GRILLOT, NYT

Image via KYLE GRILLOT, NYT

For those concerned about the future of American democracy and the stranglehold the Republican Party has over all branched of government, this should brighten up your Monday morning. According to new polling data, the GOP is in very, very serious trouble in the upcoming midterms. 

Take a look at this chart comparing the numbers from the 2010 midterms when the Democrats were essentially annihilated, and 2018. It does not paint a pretty picture: 

table: Lazaro Gamio/Axios

table: Lazaro Gamio/Axios

Reported Axios

Yes, the punditocracy is being cautious about 2018 because it has fresh memories of how humiliating it felt to wake up on Nov. 9, 2016, with Donald Trump as president. But the graphic above tells a stark story and shows the pundit class may be underestimating the odds of a devastating election season for Republicans.

The bottom line: The signals look every bit as bad for Republicans as they did for House Democrats when they got wiped out in the 2010 Tea Party wave.

To compound the Republican Party's woes, it also appears that the Senate is also in play, giving Democrats the chance to take majority control of the government. An in depth look at the landscape on CNN today reveals several pathways for the Democrats to eke out a narrow victory in Senate races across the country. While the Democrats have to run almost perfect campaigns to pull this off, the prospect of what some Republican strategists are calling an ‘overriding force’ possibility is keeping them up at night. 

With Donald Trump doing his best to plunge the Republican Party deeper and deeper into the many scandals he is embroiled in, GOP strategists fear late surges across the country that could tip the elections towards the Democrats. Hatred for Trump could inspire huge, unpredictable voter turnout that could result in a devastating loss for Republicans. 

In all likelihood, the Democrats will probably only take the House. This would still deliver a huge blow to the Trump administration given it is being protected from the consequence of the Mueller investigation by the GOP. With Democrats back in the House, Mueller can be shielded from Republican suppression tactics, and new ethics investigations can be launched to tie the president up for the remainder of his time in office (if he can survive that long). 

The GOP understand this all too well and are frantically sounding the alarm, but from all the above evidence, it is likely too little too late. 

 

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