Even though George W. Bush managed to get himself elected twice, after roughly 6 years of his disastrous presidency, Americans finally understood that he was in fact the dumbest leader in the history of the country and began ignoring him completely. By the time he'd crashed the economy in late 2007, Bush had sewn up his legacy as not only the worst president in American history, but in pretty much the history of anything, ever.
After Bush, a succession of even crazier idiots were rolled out for the electorate, each one faring worse than the last. From Sarah Palin to Herman Cain, the Republicans are evaporating in the sunlight faster than ever.
This would point to the fact that the American people are catching on to the raw stupidity and incompetence of prominent conservatives -- a welcome fact given the latest installment of crazy.
This year's monstrosity of a political candidate -- a racist reality television star who made his money flipping hotels and ripping off students is flaming out in record time. After a series of gaffes that included shaming his opponent's wife, calling Hillary Clinton a dog, and arguing women who have abortions should face punishment, the bright star that was once Donald Trump is finally burning itself to a crisp. Just check the Washington Post's demographic breakdown of Trump's favorability across a range of voter groups:
This is in short, a complete disaster for not only Trump, but the Republicans in the general election. Since the other feckless candidates are incapable of competing with him, the Republican Party is now headed towards the abyss and will not recover for decades to come. As the New York Times noted:
Republicans who once worried that Mr. Trump might gain overwhelming momentum in the primaries are now becoming preoccupied with a different grim prospect: that Mr. Trump might become a kind of zombie candidate — damaged beyond the point of repair, but too late for any of his rivals to stop him.
Democrats should not get too excited just yet -- there is still a general election to be fought, and Trump is notoriously difficult to kill. But the data is pretty clear: it is almost impossible for Trump to win with favorability ratings like this. As Andrew Prokop in Vox writes:
Trump now trails Clinton by 9 points in the HuffPost Pollster polling average and by 11.2 points in RealClearPolitics' average — and he's behind Bernie Sanders by even more inboth. Any of these showings from Trump would be the weakest performance from a major party nominee in the past 20 years.
The trendlines for the billionaire are terrible too. Back during the waning months of 2015, he regularly came within a few points of both Clinton and Sanders. But historically, polls conducted so far in advance have been essentially meaningless.
Crucially, Trump's decline has happened just when these polls actually start to mean something. In newer polls, Trump almost never comes close to either Clinton or Sanders anymore. And in past races, changes in general election polling that have occurred during this period of the campaign have often ended up sticking.
So grab the popcorn and enjoy the beginning of the end.