Skip to main content

My Prediction: 2016 will be Hillary v. Ryan

Ok, there are a few things I know are true.  Gravity on earth is 9.8 meters per second squared.  I know the earth is round and revolves around the sun.  I also know that Hillary Clinton is not just running for president, she is leading a movement. So that side is sowed up.  Let's look at the GOP contenders, shall we?

Everybody loves Rubio:  Marco Rubio; he's young, smart, from an important state.  Has a great immigrant story if he would stop running away from it every 20 seconds. His signature issue, immigration reform, was pretty absent from his CPAC speech.  Idea, sit 2016 out because -- and this is the best advice you will ever get -- Hillary will wipe the floor with you.  And not just because your staff is too stupid to put your water where you can reach it without looking like you're reaching for a lifeboat.  When you turn 12, come back and talk to us.

Chris Christie rocked that Sandy thing: Chris Christie may be the most popular Republican in America but do you really think Sandy will be an issue in 2016?  Have you checked the American voters' attention span, well, ever?  A few years ago Mark Sanford ran off to Argentina to be with his mistress but told his staff he was hiking the Appalachian Trail.  He's now posed to reenter his public life by being elected to Congress.  Remember when he told a national audience that his mistress was his "soul mate"?  Apparently, South Carolina's first CD doesn't.  Oh and if the Dems lose the voters where Sandy was hit, they should never win anything (lotto, race track, tic tac toe) again.  Sorry, Chris but to add insult to injury, your size will matter.  (Please don't email me about Taft, I know he weighed more.)

The Rand Paul Revolution: Senator Paul has taken up where his dad left off (good for you, you all clearly believe in this nonsense but way to commit!).  Can he get the nomination?  Goodness, no (if you could see me you'd see me shaking my head and laughing). Rand Paul and I share a few things -- I agree the drone program needs more discussion and that he and I have the same chance of winning the GOP nomination. Sorry, Rand, you could however be the Ted Kennedy of your libertarian movement.  That might actually move our policies in your direction because you will never live at 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue.

Who else? Who else? Who else? Ok...

Sarah "that ship has sailed and sits on the ocean floor next to the Titanic" Palin:  I guess we need to mention her.  Palin thinks she's still relevant to people, and to her Tea Party fans, she is.  To the other 89 percent of the population she's a quitter who wouldn't even finish out her term as governor.  And you are an inspiration? (Actually, despite her flaws, she is so much better than people like Gretchen Carlson, god I hate her.)  Again, if the GOP puts you up against Hillary, you and the floor will become very well acquainted.  Have fun with that.

And as we reach the near end of my snarkiness buffet, we come to the person the GOP should pick: Congressman Paul Ryan.

Why?  If you ignore the substance, and most Republicans seem to as Ronald Reagan -- what with his tax raising, pro-immigrant ways, would never get the nod in today's GOP, so let's enter their alternative reality where substance is just something dorky people care about.  Paul Ryan is the closest thing to Reagan they have had since Reagan.  Polls show elections go to the more likable candidate.  He is plenty likable.  As he will be facing Hillary, who could not be more establishment -- and Ryan people pay attention, this is where you get the best advice you will ever get (sorry, mom).  Your message is that your guy has spent his career working on fiscal issues and cares/knows about the budget.  If his ideas about going into the inner cities to talk about how conservative policies would helped poor people more, you might not have won them over but you would have won over a lot of white suburban voters who weren't sure what to do. (And no, I don't think all suburbanites are white but look at our country's demographics before you send me hate mail, or send it.)  Barack Obama didn't win any more than you lost.  Ryan was more conservative on abortion than Mitt Romney but -- and I cannot stress this enough and I have been working on campaigns since I was eight -- like Reagan, I think can make people think "well, I don't agree with him on X but I think he is just saying to please ..." You may laugh but it works.  People don't hear what they are being told, they hear what they want to and as much as Hillary is heading up a movement, not everyone is ready for a female president (I am but I was named after Hillary Clinton, yeppers, my full name is Alyson Hillary Chadwick, true story).  Mr. Ryan, the bill for the best advice you will ever get is...

Seriously, play to your strengths and this could be a real race where we talk about crap that matters not the random potpourri of things that have taken over our thinking process.

Enhanced by Zemanta