After a week of Romney trying to undo the damage of the "47%" video, these are the latest numbers on his likeliness to win the election if it were held today (from Nate Silver):
What conclusion can we draw? Andrew Sullivan deduces the obvious:
We have found that Romney in general loses votes the more he opens his mouth in public and private (two categories fast merging). He's lost the core terms of this campaign (it's now a choice, not a referendum), he has lost the specifics (the vagueness of his tax plan is indeed a red flag), he is insisting you can cut the debt by cutting taxes for the very rich like him, then calls half the country deadbeats.
It's hard to see how Romney can come back at all now - bar a series of incredible performances at the debates and a hidden video of Obama saying something equally as stupid as Romney's "47%" diatribe, it's basically over.
Because as Matt Taibbi writes, Americans simply don't like Mitt Romney. He fails the 'which candidate would you rather have a beer with' test that seems to be the most trustworthy predictor of Presidential elections these days:
How many Americans will choose to sit at the bar with the coiffed Wall Street multimillionaire who fires your sister, unapologetically pays half your tax rate, keeps his money stashed in Cayman Islands partnerships or Swiss accounts in his wife's name, cheerfully encourages finance-industry bailouts while bashing "entitlements" like Medicare, waves a pom-pom while your kids go fight and die in hell-holes like Afghanistan and Iraq and generally speaking has never even visited the country that most of the rest of us call the United States, except to make sure that it's paying its bills to him on time?
As it's turning out, not that many.