This is why you see Karl Rove trying to kneecap Palin early. Her polling is horrendously bad at the state level. Public Policy Polling (PPP) notes that "In a few of those states you have to go back to the days of Harry Truman and Franklin Roosevelt to find a GOP nominee whose margin of defeat was as great as Palin's current polling deficit."
No matter how much Obama may upset the base of the party (and polls indicate his support is still pretty solid there), a Palin nomination has every indication of leading to a blowout of 1964 or 1984 dimensions in favor of President Obama.
Run, Sarah, Run!