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British Election Projection


Nate Silver looks at the British election and projects a Conservative minority government. He writes:

If seats in the House of Commons are distributed
exactly as our model suggests, it would create an unusual situation in
which Conservatives alone could not form a majority, but Labour and
Liberal Democrats could also not combine to form a majority. My
personal view is that the most likely outcome of such a scenario would
be a Conservative minority government, possibly followed by new
elections in relatively short order as Conservatives sought to win an
outright majority.

Here's the chart:


Andrew Sullivan believes if this happens, the Tories will face a nightmare scenario:

The Tory nightmare scenario - foretold to me last autumn by a senior
Tory - is that they have to govern as a minority government, enact
stringent spending cuts and then face an angry electorate after a few
months, because their minority government is brought down in the
Commons. In other words: the Tories would be used to do the dirty work
of actually cutting spending and then pilloried and replaced.

In other words, this might be the best scenario possible (sorry Andrew, your Tory sympathies are not shared on this blog) - Labour gets rid of Brown, reinvents itself or more closely allies itself with the Lib Dems and get themselves into power. The truth is, Britain is clearly heading in a more progressive direction given the Lib Dems and Labour still outnumber the Tories. A Conservative government will enact the exact same policies that got the country into the mess in in the first place and will only make matters worse. I don't think Labour deserves to win, but I don't think Britain deserves the Tories either.