Skip to main content


In Gallup's old likely voter model - the most McCain friendly projection - Obama has moved his lead back up to 5%.

One thing I've noticed is that in many swing states - Colorado, Virginia, and in some polls Nevada - Obama is over 50%. Back in 2004, that was not the case with Sen. Kerry. So, in a lot of these cases even in the impossible likelihood that all undecideds went McCain the state would still go Obama. But the likelihood of all undecideds going McCain ain't so good. It's a good buffer to have.