Obama 286 - McCain 252
Popular vote: Obama by 2%
I feel pretty safe with this map. I'm conservative when it comes to these things, though I wouldn't be surprised now with an Obama win in FL, OH, MO and even NC. Of those, the most likely to flip is FL which would be a huge prize.
In the Senate, I think Dems will pick up 7 seats (MN, NM, AK, CO, NH, OR, VA). I feel like they will fall short in the NC race. That would work out to 57-42-1.
In the House, I have no clue what the margin will be but it will be more Democrats.