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Does Anyone Think John McCain Will Get 15% Of The Black Vote In Ohio?

That's what the internals of this SurveyUSA poll say, which overall shows McCain only up by 1%.

This is part of a pattern I'm seeing in polls, where the number of black voters for McCain don't seem to jibe with what's likely to happen. I'm not saying he will get no black voters, but I think it isn't being too optimistic to think that he won't hit double digits. (And I'm not alleging any malice or shenanigans - I think in general pollsters are getting a very small sample of black voters which from a cursory reading seems to be a regular occurence)

By comparison, Bush got 16% of the black vote in Ohio in 2004, part of a national trend in 2004 that had the GOP hit the highest ever in the black vote. In 2000, the black vote went for Bush to the tune of 9% in Ohio.

Consider these factors: Katrina, the economy, Iraq and oh yeah, the possibility of the first black president in U.S. history.

Even if McCain reaches the 2000 number, I think he would be very lucky.

(Howard the Duck landed in Cleveland. I am such a nerd.)