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Bush Led Kerry At This Point In 2004

I don't know why people writing about the election - especially conservatives - keep getting this wrong. Today it is Edward Luce writing in the Financial Times.

The RealClear Politics website’s average of polls, which gives Mr Obama a lead of 6.8 per cent over Mr McCain, offers a better guide to the situation. It compares to John Kerry’s lead just a few weeks before he lost the 2004 election to Mr Bush.

Ok, here is the RealClearPolitics average of polls from 2004:

Notice something? After late August of 2004, Sen. Kerry never had a lead on President Bush. That's exactly the opposite of what the Financial Times said.

Again, I don't think the election is in the bag. I think Sen. Obama is going to have to fight, fight, fight the last few weeks against a Republican attack machine who has never faced a situation this negative before. But let us not rewrite history - recent history - in order to create some narrative for John McCain that doesn't exist.

Here is the current state of the race, using the RCP average.

At this point, Sen. McCain's trajectory has more in common with Sen. Kerry's.