By Ben Cohen
The Right Wing 'Drudge Report' broke a story today claiming the race was 49 Obama, 47 McCain. Titled 'Gallup Shock: 49 Obama, 47 McCain with likely voters', the story gives the impression that we've been wrong all along, and Obama is nowhere near as dominant as we thought.
Not so says fivethirtyeight.com (the leading poll statistician):
Slow news day, Matt? If this is a two-point race right now, I'll eat Drudge's fedora. None of the dozen or so other polls that were in the field this week shows a race that close. Nor do either of the alternate versions of Gallup's model,
including the so-called Likely Voters II model that I find most
credible. (Drudge, of course, had no interest in featuring the Zogby poll, as he had for the past several of days on his site, but which today showed Obama gaining ground.)
me be clear: I don't blame Drudge for trying to drive the narrative.
Unlike certain other folks, it's not as though he's made any claim to
being objective. With real news -- which polls aren't -- he generally
has excellent and entertaining instincts.
I do, however, blame
those of who allow yourselves to have your day ruined when Drudge
moonlights as some kind of polling analyst.