Skip to main content

Storm still brewing

  • Author:
  • Updated:

I will not pretend to have a full command of the financial market/real economy debacle we find ourselves in. Few do. But there are a few developments we should be aware of. First, the Hank Paulson rescue plan as it stands will not achieve the stated ends, according to much of the informed opinion. Moreover, it would give treasury officials a level of freedom (without oversight) that should make us nervous. Second, commodity price inflation, which we thought had been killed by the spectre of global recession is back. Finally, the elephant in the room is the still gargantuan US current account deficit, which would imply a dramatic drop off in the value of the dollar at some point in the future and increasing oil prices. In September 2001, Tony Blair told the Labour party conference that "the kaleidoscope has been shaken, the pieces are in flux"... Well, its all up in the air again.