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Superdelegates And A Break To Obama

photo credit: My Hobo Soul

At some points all the photographers put down their cameras just to listen.

So in the course of following this stuff, its a must for people like myself to try and make assesments of things based on facts and not my emotions. I'm not saying I'm absolved of that, but I think I do a better job than... some. In the case of Democratic superdelegates, I think I'm on solid ground predicting that enough of them will break to Sen. Obama in order for him to get the nomination (before the convention). One school of thought says that they're very cautious, and as a result open to Sen. Clinton's "wait and see" argument through which she plans to convince them that she's more electable because of her wins in the larger states. Putting aside that I think this argument is absurd, I think this argument won't work. The overwhelming narrative has rejected the Clinton slice-and-dice argument.

While the short term story shows dips and valleys for her campaign, the big picture is that she has lost so far to a better prepared opponent. The superdelegates are mostly politicians with their seats on the line, and as such they will not want to go against the grain. I expect at least one more friendly cycle for Sen. Clinton if she wins Pennsylvania (something she should win by at least 20 points), but after that and this extended period of intra-party squabbling, you're going to see an increased drumbeat for the choice of a nominee and preparation for the convention and the months after that. While I'm sure Sen. Clinton will soldier on Mike Huckabee style, at some point soon the thing will be done and the healing initiated.

The Clinton campaign has certainly disappointed me, but not to the extent that I would ever vote for a Republican. If she were to win the nomination fairly, I and the vast majority of Obama supporters would have no problem strongly supporting her. And despite the mewling on the other side, I'm guessing a clear majority of Sen. Clinton's supporters won't have any issues in electing Sen. Obama. Yeah, you'll have some disgruntled ninny say they'll vote for McCain if Clinton isn't the nominee, but you can't account for all varieties of brain damage.

Barack Obama will be the Democratic nominee before the convention.
Barack Obama will be the general election frontrunner.
Barack Obama will win the election.
Redskins will win the Super Bowl. (if you're shooting for the moon, why not go all the way)