Looking back at the 2004 general election exit polls, I noticed that 11% of the black vote went to President Bush, while 44% of the Hispanic vote went to him as well. Does anyone besides myself think that this represents a historic anomaly in favor of the Republican party (just about the only thing Karl Rove's done right)? Since that election we've had Katrina and the failure of immigration reform as well as a Republican party who has turned anti-immigrant. That doesn't even take into account the general failure of the Bush years. That 11% is going to be thinking really hard about where their vote goes if the first possible black president is on the ballot.
The most idealistic scenario for the GOP has to be that those numbers get sliced in half. Reality may show that even that is an optimistic prediction.