Skip to main content

Realigning The Map?

155,000 more black voters turned out Saturday to vote for Barack Obama than who voted in the Democratic primary in 2004. The overall Democratic field is doing a superb job at turning out voters, thrashing the Republicans with an enthusiasm gap that has to have the GOP's strategists concerned (and that number doesn't accurately reflect just how strongly independents have turned against the Republican party since 2004).

I've pushed the idea for some time that in addition to the Democratic advantage we're likely to see this fall thanks to the Bush era, there is also an untapped black vote that will materialize if Sen. Obama is the nominee. Also, as 2006 has shown us, thanks to the incumbent party's zeal for immigrant-bashing, the hispanic numbers from 2004 are likely to show up as a historic anomaly in favor of the Republicans. So, consider the following swing states in 2004 that went for Bush:

Iowa, Bush, 0.67%
New Mexico, Bush, 0.79%
Ohio, Bush, 2.11%
Nevada, Bush, 2.59%
Colorado, Bush, 4.67%

I can see no reason for those states not to go Democratic. The most pro-Bush of those states, Colorado, is in the middle of a red-to-blue conversion already. In addition to the existing Democratic base vote, we're likely to see independents decisively go Democratic, as well as Hispanics coming home and a surge of brand new black voters if Obama is the nominee. I don't even know if having Arizona-based McCain as the GOP nominee will be enough for them to stop the bleeding in those southwestern swing states.

And this doesn't even take into account the fact that Virginia is trending Democratic and has Mark Warner, a popular Democrat, in contention for the senate seat who has proven coattails.

I'm always pessimistic, always in favor of discarding hubris in favor of feeling lean, mean, and hungry. But I'm also feeling some of that "Yes We Can" religion.

Anyone think this map is totally unrealistic? (I made it here)

ALSO: I think Arkansas is in play as well if Sen. Clinton is the nominee, but not otherwise.