Election Prediction, August Edition

So here are my current predictions for how this election of ours is going to shake out. FYI, I have never predicted Florida right. I thought it would go Gore in 2000 (kind of right), Kerry in 2004, McCain in 2008.

These predictions are worth what you paid to get them and are subject to my whims.

Overall Election: 51% Obama, 49% Romney

Electoral College: 286 Obama 252 Romney

Here’s the state by state breakdown (though I still think Obama has a legit shot in FL, NH, and VA while I think Romney has a shot in NV and CO):

Senate (just noting close/interesting races, otherwise I think the status quo remains the same)

Overall: Flip to GOP

Hawaii: Staying Dem, though Lingle will do better than people assume

Nebraska: Flip to GOP

New Mexico: Dem Hold

North Dakota: Flip to GOP

Virginia: Dem Hold (though probably the closest race in the country, Lord I don’t know how but there you go)

Maryland: Dem Hold by double digits

Michigan: Dem Hold

Missouri: Flip to GOP

Montana: Flip to GOP

West Virginia: Dem Hold, though we’d probably be better off with the Republican

Maine: Flip to Dem (I think Angus King is going to screw something up and make an opening for the Dem)

Massachusetts: Flip to Dem – Warren by about 7%

House

I don’t really follow these that closely, I think Dems will eat into the GOP majority, but not gain control.

Democrats will pick up MD-6 district, leaving only one Republican in the House for Maryland

Ballot Initiatives

Marriage Equality will be enshrined into law by the people in Maryland. Easily.