Election Prediction, August Edition
So here are my current predictions for how this election of ours is going to shake out. FYI, I have never predicted Florida right. I thought it would go Gore in 2000 (kind of right), Kerry in 2004, McCain in 2008.
These predictions are worth what you paid to get them and are subject to my whims.
Overall Election: 51% Obama, 49% Romney
Electoral College: 286 Obama 252 Romney
Here’s the state by state breakdown (though I still think Obama has a legit shot in FL, NH, and VA while I think Romney has a shot in NV and CO):
Senate (just noting close/interesting races, otherwise I think the status quo remains the same)
Overall: Flip to GOP
Hawaii: Staying Dem, though Lingle will do better than people assume
Nebraska: Flip to GOP
New Mexico: Dem Hold
North Dakota: Flip to GOP
Virginia: Dem Hold (though probably the closest race in the country, Lord I don’t know how but there you go)
Maryland: Dem Hold by double digits
Michigan: Dem Hold
Missouri: Flip to GOP
Montana: Flip to GOP
West Virginia: Dem Hold, though we’d probably be better off with the Republican
Maine: Flip to Dem (I think Angus King is going to screw something up and make an opening for the Dem)
Massachusetts: Flip to Dem – Warren by about 7%
I don’t really follow these that closely, I think Dems will eat into the GOP majority, but not gain control.
Democrats will pick up MD-6 district, leaving only one Republican in the House for Maryland
Marriage Equality will be enshrined into law by the people in Maryland. Easily.