By Ben Cohen
According to FiveThirtyEight.com, there has been no significant change in the polls, despite McCain throwing as much dirt as possible at Obama in the last week. FiveThirtyEight is predicting a 349 to 189 victory for Obama:
It's Tuesday, November 4th, 2008, Election Day in America. The last
polls have straggled in, and show little sign of mercy for John McCain.
Barack Obama appears poised for a decisive electoral victory.
model projects that Obama will win all states won by John Kerry in
2004, in addition to Iowa, New Mexico, Colorado, Ohio, Virginia,
Nevada, Florida and North Carolina, while narrowly losing Missouri and
Indiana. These states total 353 electoral votes. Our official
projection, which looks at these outcomes probabilistically -- for
instance, assigns North Carolina's 15 electoral votes to Obama 59
percent of the time -- comes up with an incrementally more conservative
projection of 348.6 electoral votes.
project Obama to win the popular vote by 6.1 points; his lead is
slightly larger than that in the polls now, but our model accounts for
the fact that candidates with large leads in the polls typically
underperform their numbers by a small margin on Election Day.