Outliers

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So the NBC/Wall Street Journal poll shows a dead heat at 47 Obama 46 McCain, which is in line with polls from Rasmussen, Hotline, CNN, and ABC/Wapo. Only Gallup is showing a wider, five point margin in favor of McCain. Which means the Gallup poll is probably the same kind of outlier as the Newsweek poll from a while back showing Obama at 15+.

So what are the known knowns (to paraphrase the worst Secretary of Defense ever)?

* Sen. McCain got a convention bump.
* The race is close.
* Nobody is going to win in a landslide.
* Barack Obama is going to be our next president.