Current Prediction

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Caveat: All predictions are subject to flip-floppery.


Hillary Clinton gets endorsed by Maryland Gov. Martin O'Malley

Hillary Clinton and Maryland Gov. Martin O'Malley

As the race stands now, considering we've got about 7 months until Iowa/New Hampshire, I would say Sen. Clinton wins the Democratic nomination. Obama seems to have hit a wall and there are still serious questions about whether he and his campaign have enough "fire in the belly" to win the nomination and the general election. I'm also skeptical of the Edwards' campaign organization (the agonizingly slow and inept response to the blogger "controversy" was troubling) as well as whether labor support is enough to push him over the top. There's still time for both of them (and maybe Richardson) but we're seriously in "show me the money" phase right now.

Sen. Clinton has clear negatives - she is polarizing and her vote on the war stinks (as well as the refusal to really apologize for the vote) but her organization is second to none, although I and others find the mantra from her pollster Mark Penn of "inevitability" to be both ridiculous and crass. Frankly you get the sense from Penn that we shouldn't even bother with the primaries.

Aside from the war - and don't let some folks confuse you, it is going to be the issue of the election - I more or less line up with Sen. Clinton on the vast majority of issues (which of course means I'm a corporatist DLC sellout or whatever, more on that in the future). There's one school of thought saying that she wouldn't end the war if she got in, but her statement on the issue is pretty unambiguous. If she moved away from it, she'd be cut off at the knees from left and right from the get-go.

I think McCain wins the Republican nomination - they'll stick with what they know versus a field of people whose conservative credentials are shaky at best.

And Hillary would beat McCain, helped largely by independents who are now turned off by McCain's propagandisticwar cheerleading.

Also, increased - slightly - Democratic majorities in the House and Senate.

Or I could - likely - be amazingly wrong and await my deportation to Jamaica ("I don't care if you were born in America and your parents were both legal immigrants, they have accents and that's reason enough") by President Tancredo. And that would truly strike fear into my heart.